The yield the U.S. government pays to borrow for each length of time, from 3 months to 30 years, as of 2026-09-28. Normally longer loans pay more (the line slopes up). The shape is one of the most-watched signals in markets: it shows what investors expect for interest rates, inflation and growth.
Upward-sloping (normal): investors expect growth and want more to lend for longer. Flat: uncertainty; the market expects rates to fall. Inverted (short above long): the market expects the Fed to cut because the economy will weaken, a classic recession warning.
Bear steepening: long yields rise fastest (inflation or debt worries), tough for stocks and long bonds. Bull steepening: short yields fall fastest (the Fed cutting), often seen as a recession starts. Bear flattening: short yields rise fastest (Fed hiking). Bull flattening: long yields fall fastest (growth fears or a flight to safety).
Every standard U.S. Treasury maturity, from the 3-month bill to the 30-year bond, as of 2026-09-28. Bills (1 year or less) pay no coupon: you buy below $1,000 and get $1,000 back. Notes (2-10 years) and bonds (20-30 years) pay interest twice a year and return $1,000 at maturity. Yields are yearly percentages.
| Maturity | Yield | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 year | Matures if bought today | Cost per $1,000 | Yearly income per $1,000 | Duration | If yields rise 1% | 12-mo return if curve holds | Cushion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Month Bill | 4.28% | +4 | +11 | +38 | +26 | 2026-12-29 | $989.41 | $42.80 | 0.2 yrs | -0.2% | +4.3% | — |
| 6-Month Bill | 4.41% | +8 | +14 | +39 | +58 | 2027-03-29 | $978.43 | $44.10 | 0.5 yrs | -0.5% | +4.4% | — |
| 1-Year Bill | 4.59% | +9 | +14 | +44 | +92 | 2027-09-29 | $956.11 | $45.90 | 1.0 yrs | -1.0% | +4.6% | — |
| 2-Year Note | 4.92% | +11 | +16 | +58 | +129 | 2028-09-29 | $1,000 (par) | $49.20 | 1.9 yrs | -1.9% | +5.2% | +549 bp |
| 3-Year Note | 5.01% | +7 | +19 | +60 | +135 | 2029-09-29 | $1,000 (par) | $50.10 | 2.8 yrs | -2.8% | +5.2% | +275 bp |
| 5-Year Note | 5.06% | +8 | +23 | +58 | +130 | 2031-09-29 | $1,000 (par) | $50.60 | 4.4 yrs | -4.4% | +5.1% | +144 bp |
| 7-Year Note | 5.15% | +9 | +26 | +56 | +119 | 2033-09-29 | $1,000 (par) | $51.50 | 5.8 yrs | -5.8% | +5.4% | +105 bp |
| 10-Year Note | 5.24% | +7 | +28 | +51 | +104 | 2036-09-29 | $1,000 (par) | $52.40 | 7.7 yrs | -7.7% | +5.5% | +77 bp |
| 20-Year Bond | 5.60% | +6 | +27 | +39 | +86 | 2046-09-29 | $1,000 (par) | $56.00 | 11.9 yrs | -11.9% | +6.0% | +52 bp |
| 30-Year Bond | 5.56% | +7 | +27 | +34 | +79 | 2056-09-29 | $1,000 (par) | $55.60 | 14.5 yrs | -14.5% | +5.5% | +38 bp |
Changes are in basis points (bp; 100 bp = 1%). Duration is how sensitive the price is to rates: a duration of 7.7 means a 1% rise in yields cuts the price by about 7.7%. 12-month return if the curve holds = the interest earned plus the "roll-down" gain as the bond ages into a lower-yielding maturity, assuming today's curve stays put. Cushion = how far yields could rise over the year before that return turns negative.
$100 minimum, in $100 steps, at the regular auctions (bills weekly; 2-7 year notes monthly; 10, 20 and 30-year quarterly with monthly reopenings). No fees. Hold to maturity and you get exactly the stated yield.
New issues at auction or existing bonds on the secondary market, usually in $1,000 face-value units. Prices move daily with yields, so you can sell before maturity (at a gain or a loss).
The price of one share. A fund holds many Treasuries in one maturity range and pays monthly. It never matures, so its price keeps moving with rates; see the table below.
Treasury interest is taxed federally but exempt from state and local income tax, which gives it an edge over CDs and corporate bonds in high-tax states.
Total returns, interest included, for funds that hold each maturity range: how bond holders have actually done. Long bonds swing far more than bills; that's duration at work.
| Fund | Holds | Share price | Yield | 1 month | 3 months | Year to date | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIL | 1-3 month bills Treasuries | $91.63 | 3.76% | +0.3% | +0.9% | +2.6% | +3.7% |
| SHV | 0-1 year Treasuries | $110.28 | 3.73% | +0.2% | +0.9% | +2.5% | +3.6% |
| SHY | 1-3 year Treasuries | $81.11 | 3.63% | -0.7% | -0.4% | +0.3% | +1.4% |
| IEI | 3-7 year Treasuries | $113.44 | 3.71% | -2.1% | -2.8% | -2.6% | -1.4% |
| IEF | 7-10 year Treasuries | $89.53 | 3.97% | -3.2% | -4.8% | -4.4% | -3.3% |
| TLH | 10-20 year Treasuries | $92.75 | 4.59% | -4.3% | -7.4% | -6.0% | -5.5% |
| TLT | 20+ year Treasuries | $78.62 | 4.73% | -4.8% | -9.1% | -7.0% | -7.5% |
Each contract settles on the average overnight lending rate (SOFR) over a 3-month period, so 100 minus its price is the rate the market expects for that quarter. Reading across the strip gives the market's forecast for short-term rates, which track the Fed. One contract moves $25 for each 0.01% change in the expected rate.
| Contract | Covers | Price | Implied rate | Rate change (1 day) | Open interest | Last trading day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR3U26 front | Sep 2026 – Dec 2026 | 95.988 | 4.012% | +0 bp | 1.34M | 2026-12-16 |
| SR3Z26 | Dec 2026 – Mar 2027 | 95.605 | 4.395% | +1 bp | 1.67M | 2027-03-17 |
| SR3H27 | Mar 2027 – Jun 2027 | 95.295 | 4.705% | +2 bp | 1.19M | 2027-06-16 |
| SR3M27 | Jun 2027 – Sep 2027 | 95.115 | 4.885% | +3 bp | 1.26M | 2027-09-15 |
| SR3U27 | Sep 2027 – Dec 2027 | 95.055 | 4.945% | +4 bp | 979K | 2027-12-15 |
| SR3Z27 | Dec 2027 – Mar 2028 | 95.065 | 4.935% | +4 bp | 1.47M | 2028-03-15 |
| SR3H28 | Mar 2028 – Jun 2028 | 95.085 | 4.915% | +4 bp | 734K | 2028-06-21 |
| SR3M28 | Jun 2028 – Sep 2028 | 95.105 | 4.895% | +4 bp | 577K | 2028-09-20 |
Contracts to buy or sell Treasuries at a set price on a set date, quoted in points and 32nds of a point (104-22.5 = 104 + 22.5/32). Prices move opposite to yields. The two nearest quarterly contracts are shown; they roll forward automatically as each one expires, and trading moves to the next about a week before.
| Contract | Price | Change | Open interest | Last trading day | Contract value | Per 0.01% yield move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZTU26 Sep 2026 front | 101-27.8 (101.867) | -0.1% | 16K | 2026-09-30 | $203,734 | ≈ $39 |
| ZTZ26 Dec 2026 | 101-17.6 (101.551) | -0.1% | 4.53M | 2026-12-31 | $203,102 | ≈ $39 |
| Contract | Price | Change | Open interest | Last trading day | Contract value | Per 0.01% yield move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z3NU26 Sep 2026 front | 102-17.4 (102.543) | -0.2% | 860 | 2026-09-30 | $205,086 | ≈ $57 |
| Z3NZ26 Dec 2026 | 102-07.5 (102.234) | -0.1% | 6K | 2026-12-31 | $204,469 | ≈ $57 |
| Contract | Price | Change | Open interest | Last trading day | Contract value | Per 0.01% yield move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZFU26 Sep 2026 front | 103-20.5 (103.641) | -0.2% | 311 | 2026-09-30 | $103,641 | ≈ $42 |
| ZFZ26 Dec 2026 | 103-08.0 (103.250) | -0.1% | 6.81M | 2026-12-31 | $103,250 | ≈ $42 |
| Contract | Price | Change | Open interest | Last trading day | Contract value | Per 0.01% yield move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZNZ26 Dec 2026 front | 104-11.0 (104.344) | -0.1% | 5.71M | 2026-12-21 | $104,344 | ≈ $66 |
| ZNH27 Mar 2027 | 104-08.0 (104.250) | -0.4% | 1K | 2027-03-19 | $104,250 | ≈ $66 |
| Contract | Price | Change | Open interest | Last trading day | Contract value | Per 0.01% yield move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNZ26 Dec 2026 front | 105-10.0 (105.312) | -0.1% | 2.57M | 2026-12-21 | $105,313 | ≈ $90 |
| Contract | Price | Change | Open interest | Last trading day | Contract value | Per 0.01% yield move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZBZ26 Dec 2026 front | 103-20.0 (103.625) | -0.1% | 1.87M | 2026-12-21 | $103,625 | ≈ $130 |
| ZBH27 Mar 2027 | 103-12.0 (103.375) | -0.8% | 1K | 2027-03-19 | $103,375 | ≈ $129 |
| Contract | Price | Change | Open interest | Last trading day | Contract value | Per 0.01% yield move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBZ26 Dec 2026 front | 104-26.0 (104.812) | -0.1% | 2.50M | 2026-12-21 | $104,812 | ≈ $183 |
Contract value is the full exposure (price × face value). To open a position you post margin, a deposit set by the exchange and your broker, typically a few percent of that value, so check your broker for the current amount. Per 0.01% yield move estimates how much one contract gains or loses when yields move one basis point: a quick way to size positions. The 20-year Treasury future isn't available from free data sources.
The SOFR futures strip, read as a forecast. The dashed line is today's 3-month Treasury bill rate (4.28%). Bars above it mean the market expects rates to rise; below, to fall.
The market is pricing about 2.6 quarter-point hikes over the next year: short-term rates of about 4.95% by Sep 2027, +66 bp from today. The strip peaks at 4.95% (Sep 2027) and bottoms at 4.01% (Sep 2026).
The New York Fed's model turns the 10-year minus 3-month spread into the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months. It has flagged every recession since the 1960s, though with a long, uneven lead time, and it has given false alarms (the 2022-24 inversion didn't lead to one by its usual timeline).
Bond yields are the "risk-free" return every other investment is measured against, so when they move, stocks feel it. This tab shows what has actually happened to the S&P 500 after the 10-year Treasury yield moved, since 1990.
| 10-year yield that month | Months | S&P 500 same month (avg) | Up months | Next 3 months (avg) | Up after 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yields jumped (up more than 0.25%) this month | 65 | +0.6% | 55% | +2.1% | 65% |
| Yields rose (up to 0.25%) | 150 | +0.9% | 67% | +2.4% | 70% |
| Yields fell (down to 0.25%) | 150 | +1.5% | 72% | +2.4% | 74% |
| Yields dropped (down more than 0.25%) | 75 | -0.6% | 48% | +2.9% | 65% |
In September 2026 (so far) the 10-year yield has moved +48 bp, the "yields jumped (up more than 0.25%)" row above. Sharp moves in either direction have been the rough ones for stocks in the same month; a steady, gentle move has been the friendliest. These are historical averages, not a forecast for any single month.
Good news: earnings are rising too. Stocks usually hold up, led by banks, energy and industrials; long-duration growth stocks lag as their future profits are discounted more.
The damaging kind. Stocks and bonds fall together (positive correlation), P/E ratios shrink, and tech and other high-P/E stocks get hit hardest. Value, energy and commodities tend to hold up best.
Speed matters more than level: a jump of 0.25%+ in a month has often brought stock volatility, as borrowing costs reset and valuations are marked down. Watch the 10-year near round numbers and after hot inflation data.
Cheaper money supports stocks, especially small caps, housing and growth, unless the cuts are a response to a weakening economy, when stocks can fall anyway.
A flight to safety: investors dump stocks and buy Treasuries, so yields drop sharply while stocks fall. This is when bonds do their job as a portfolio hedge.
Inversion warns of a slowdown, but stocks often keep rising for months. The more dangerous moment has historically been the re-steepening (short rates falling as the Fed cuts into weakness), which has often come with the actual recession and a stock drawdown.
Check the curve and the rate path here before leaning into a sector: rising yields favour the financials and energy sectors on the Sector Money Flow tabs, falling yields favour utilities, real estate and tech. A high 10-year yield also raises the bar for dividend stocks: compare a stock's dividend yield on the Elite Analysis page with the Treasury yields here.
You lend $1,000 (the face value) to the government for a fixed time. It pays you interest (the coupon) twice a year and returns the $1,000 at maturity. U.S. Treasuries are backed by the federal government, so they're treated as the benchmark "risk-free" asset.
If rates rise after you buy, new bonds pay more, so yours is worth less, and its price falls until its yield matches. If rates fall, your bond's price rises. Hold to maturity and you still get your $1,000 back either way.
Duration (in years) tells you how much the price moves for a 1% change in yields. A 2-year note moves ~2%; a 30-year bond ~15%. Short maturities are for safety and income; long ones are a bet on falling rates.
Bills (4 weeks to 1 year) are sold at a discount with no coupon. Notes (2, 3, 5, 7, 10 years) and bonds (20, 30 years) pay a fixed coupon every six months. TIPS adjust for inflation.
Yields are tracked in basis points: 1 bp = 0.01%, so 25 bp = 0.25%, one "quarter-point" Fed move. A 10 bp move in the 10-year is a notable day; 25 bp+ in a week is a big one.
Short yields follow the Fed's policy rate and expectations for it (the SOFR strip). Long yields add expectations for inflation and growth, plus a "term premium" for tying money up, which rises with government borrowing and uncertainty.
Standardised contracts on a basket of Treasuries: ZT (2-year, $200K face) through UB (Ultra Bond, $100K). Traders use them to hedge or bet on rates with leverage. Prices are in 32nds, and each contract has a last trading day before delivery.
SOFR is the overnight rate banks pay to borrow against Treasuries, closely tied to the Fed's rate. A 3-month SOFR future priced at 95.50 means the market expects about 4.50% for that quarter. They're the main tool for forecasting Fed moves.
* Rule-based heuristic from the metrics above. This is educational information, not financial advice.